The Securing America’s Future Act introduced by Representatives Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), Raul Labrador (R-ID), Michael McCaul (R-TX), and Martha McSally (R-AZ) combines programs with very different effects on the economy. On the one hand, spending on border security and the establishment of a temporary worker program will increase GDP and reduce illegal immigration; on the other, reductions to legal immigration and labor market regulations like the e-verify mandate will have substantial, negative effects on the size of the economy.
Ultimately, while greater direct government spending will mean that the bill could increase GDP in the short run, the bill would soon lead to a lower level of GDP and slower growth than would current policy. To roughly quantify those effects, we give some back-of-the-envelope estimates below.
GDP would be be over $327 billion lower in 2028 than it would be under current policy, according to our back-of-the-envelope estimate. A breakdown by the bill’s various sections is below. These estimates are also available in a one-pager here.