This article was originally published in the Washington Post on May 4, 2022. Access the full article here.

The leaked draft of a Supreme Court opinion on abortion published by Politico on Monday indicates that the court is poised to overturn Planned Parenthood v. CaseyRoe v. Wade and their progeny — ending constitutional protections for the right to have an abortion. Unless one of the five justices in the majority changes his or her mind before the Court issues a final opinion, our decades-long battle over the country’s most contentious social issue will shift from confirmation hearings in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee to state capitols.

While this offers antiabortion forces their best opportunity in five decades to limit access to the procedure, it could also usher in a dog-that-caught-the-car dynamic for Republicans. For decades, abortion has benefited the GOP — in part because of the deep sense of grievance among conservative Americans on the issue.

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