This interactive tool models projected short-term civilian displacement resulting from hypothetical U.S. military strikes on Venezuelan targets.
Users can explore pre-built scenarios—such as air superiority campaigns, counter-narcotics operations, or decapitation strikes against command-and-control infrastructure—or build custom scenarios by selecting individual military installations, drug trafficking regions, or urban centers. The dashboard calculates displacement estimates based on municipal-level population data, which can be adjusted to account for either population growth or decline since the 2011 census.
To use the tool, select a scenario preset from the left panel or filter targets by type, region, or state to build a custom selection. Adjust the displacement rate slider to model different strike intensities—from surgical (0.01%) to major (10%)—and modify the population multiplier to reflect demographic changes.
The summary panel displays affected population and projected displacement figures, with breakdowns by target type and region. Results can be exported as a text report.
Note that this model estimates immediate displacement only; it does not account for secondary effects such as regional instability, prolonged conflict, or cascading migration from neighboring areas.